Research has shown that all but one post-war United States recessions were preceded by an oil price increase. Oil demand is rising, conventional supply is stagnant or even shrinking, and small supply changes can lead to large disruptions of economic activity. Oil price shocks hit the less affluent more than others as oil prices and food prices are correlated. Recent developments in oil and natural gas exploitation such as hydraulic fracturing have likely prevented the US from slipping into a new recession. However, should fracturing not live up to its promises in the future, the potential economic implications are substantial.
Professor Johannes Moenius
Professor Johannes Moenius is the William R. and S. Sue Johnson Endowed Chair of Spatial Economic Analysis and Regional Planning and the director of International Business Initiatives at the University of Redlands School of Business. His research focuses on how domestic and international institutions affect international trade. Besides the effect of legal institutions on trade, he has written several papers on the effects of technical standards on trade flows and the dynamics of comparative advantage, for which he visualised his results in an online atlas using Geographic Information Systems (GIS).
He has presented his work in more than 70 talks that he gave at universities, conferences and government institutions. His work appeared, amongst others in The Review of Economics and Statistics, Japan and the World Economy and the International Journal of Industrial Organization.
Professor Johannes Moenius was a Conference Co-Chair and Featured Speaker at The IAFOR North American Conference on Sustainability, Energy & Environment 2014 (NACSEE2014).